Ethiopia's Tigray Region Declares New War, Shattering Four-Year Peace Deal

 

Ethiopia's Tigray Region Declares New War, Shattering Four-Year Peace Deal

A fragile peace that has held for nearly four years in northern Ethiopia appears to be collapsing. Leaders of the Tigray region announced this week that they have entered a new war with Ethiopia's federal government, as fighting broke out across Tigray and two neighboring regions.

What Happened

Tigrayan forces, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), launched a major offensive on Wednesday, seizing control of three airports in the Tigray region, including the main airport in the regional capital, Mekelle. Fighting has since spread beyond Tigray into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.

The TPLF describes its actions as a "defensive war," saying it responded to airstrikes carried out by the federal government earlier in the week. Ethiopian officials, meanwhile, have accused Tigrayan forces of launching an unprovoked offensive. Both sides currently blame the other for starting the latest round of fighting.

A Fragile Peace, Unraveling

This new conflict threatens to undo the Pretoria Agreement, a peace deal signed in November 2022 that ended a brutal two-year civil war between the TPLF and federal forces. That earlier war, which began in 2020, resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and was considered one of the deadliest conflicts of the past decade.

Tensions between Tigray and the federal government have been building for months. On September 20, seven armed groups from across Ethiopia — including the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and several other regional factions — announced a coalition called the "Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival," stating its goal was to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establish a transitional administration.

Why This Matters Beyond Ethiopia

Analysts warn the conflict could extend beyond Ethiopia's borders. The region's complex web of alliances includes Eritrea, which fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces in the earlier Tigray war, and neighboring Egypt and Sudan, both of whom have longstanding tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its impact on Nile water supplies. A renewed war in Tigray risks drawing in regional players who have competing interests in the outcome.

What Happens Next

The immediate question facing observers is how Ethiopia's federal government will respond. A full-scale, coordinated military response could escalate the conflict rapidly, given the coalition now includes multiple armed groups operating across different regions of the country simultaneously — a very different situation from the more contained 2020-2022 war.

For the millions of people in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, the renewed fighting raises immediate humanitarian concerns, given the scale of displacement and casualties seen during the previous conflict. International organizations and neighboring governments are expected to closely monitor the situation in the coming days as both sides continue to mobilize.